| Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. What a difference a year makes. This time in 2024, Zambia faced its worst drought in decades. The corn crop had been decimated and a debilitating hydropower crisis was putting businesses at risk. Inflation was accelerating and the kwacha weakening.  A worker at the Mufulira refinery, operated by Mopani Copper Mines, in Zambia. Photographer: Zinyange Auntony/Bloomberg Now the currency is Africa's second-best performer against the dollar in 2025 and the harvest has hit a record. The government expects copper production to reach 1 million tons for the first time and the economy to expand at least 6% this year. "The difference between this year and last year is quite enormous," Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said in an interview at Bloomberg's Africa Business Media Innovators conference. "Last year this time, we were scratching our heads, asking how we'd feed the population." Improved rainfall transformed farming and helped replenish dams, while the almost 20% surge in the copper price in 2025 has been crucial in reigniting the mining industry. The very different picture in neighboring Botswana, though, is something that may concern Zambia. In its October 2024 economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund predicted Botswana would have a fiscal deficit of 1.7% of gross domestic product this year and a debt-to-GDP ratio of just 22%. By the April update, things had drastically changed. The world's top producer of diamonds by value is staring down a budget shortfall of 11% of GDP and the debt ratio is estimated at more than 40% — all thanks to the collapsing price of gems. Its foreign reserves are depleting and are now where they were in the early 1990s.  A Debswana diamond mine in Botswana. Photographer: Monirul Bhuiyan/Getty Images It's not out of the realm of possibility that one of only two investment-grade economies in Africa will lose that distinction. The vagaries of wars — be they artillery or trade — reverberate across the world and are often acutely felt in smaller, open economies. The dangers are amplified for African nations that are heavily reliant on a single commodity for prosperity. Those at risk include Nigeria and Angola, which are feeling the effects of lower crude prices. Booms can rapidly turn to busts. — Matthew Hill and Gordon Bell Key stories and opinion:
Zambia Sees Economic Growth Surging to Highest Since 2021
Zambia to Finalize Bilateral Debt-Revamp Deals by September
Botswana Eyes Spending Cuts as Diamond Slump Hits Economy
Debswana Halts Some Diamond Output to Save Cash During Downturn
Coffee, Oil and Other 2025 Commodity Predictions: Javier Blas The IMF said it wants to see Zimbabwe's ZiG "fully becoming a national currency" as it considers whether to place the country on a staff-monitored program. Short for Zimbabwe Gold, the ZiG succeeded the Zimbabwean dollar in April 2024. It's a sixth attempt since 2009 to replace the dollar as the southern African nation's main transacting unit. Several measures need to be put in place to boost ZiG usage, including deepening the foreign-exchange market, to ensure full price discovery, said Wojciech Maliszewski, who led an IMF's mission to Zimbabwe.  A ZiG banknote Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg The African Credit Rating Agency, a continental initiative to provide alternative assessments of repayment risks, plans to start operations by the end of September. The agency will publish its first sovereign-rating report by the end of the year or early 2026, said Misheck Mutize, lead expert on credit-rating companies at the African Peer Review Mechanism, an African Union structure. The "big three" ratings companies — Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — have been accused by African governments of bias and a lack of transparency. Where does a giant refinery in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, go to source the raw materials it needs to make fuels for the nation of 228 million people? Try crude fields around Midland in West Texas. This year, the mega Dangote plant, near the commercial capital Lagos, bought a third of its oil from the US — the lion's share of it being the grade West Texas Intermediate - Midland, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The proportion is almost double what it was in 2024, when the facility ramped up production.  The Dangote refinery. Photographer: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images The World Bank approved a $1.5 billion loan to support structural reforms aimed at upgrading South Africa's infrastructure. The funding will help the nation tackle the challenges of low growth and high unemployment by enhancing energy security and easing logistics bottlenecks. according to the Washington-based lender. Money will be allocated to state power utility Eskom to bolster the grid, and to port and rail company Transnet to increase freight-transport capacity. Some 2.5 million people visit the Pyramids of Giza each year with hopes of an epic experience befitting one of the World's Seven Wonders. But for decades, a trip to Egypt's most famous tourist spot meant battling crowds and parrying aggressive hawkers. Now, thanks to a $30 million revamp that rethinks the experience, seeing the pyramids is finally inspiring more awe than agony. A network of buses whisks visitors around the site, the hard-sells have been tamed — and you can even enjoy fine dining overlooking the 4,600-year-old monuments.  A new hop-on, hop-off bus stop at the Giza pyramids. Photographer: Islam Safwat/Bloomberg Europe is set for unseasonably warm and humid weather this week as a stream of hot air funnels in from North Africa, boosting demand for cooling. The increasing intensity and frequency of heat waves in Europe is putting the region's energy systems under pressure, especially in countries like Spain and Italy. The wave of warm air — dragged in by the combination of a low-pressure system west of the continent and a high-pressure system over mainland Europe — could fuel powerful thunderstorms, according to the UK Met Office. Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Gail Lutz, who was first to name South Africa as the African country whose economy would have been almost 40% bigger if it had tracked growth in its peers since 2010, according to a private-sector study. South Africa's key export industries are becoming increasingly vulnerable as climate policies like cross-border carbon taxes take hold, Net Zero Tracker research shows. About 422,000 South African jobs are supported by exports to countries with active or incoming carbon border adjustment mechanisms, Net Zero Tracker's researchers said in a report. The measures are designed to reduce emissions by ensuring imports are subject to the same surcharges as domestically made goods that use carbon-intensive methods. The European Union, South Africa's biggest trade partner after China, will start levying charges through its CBAM next year, and other countries may follow suit. Thanks for reading. We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Friday. Send any feedback to mcohen21@bloomberg.net | 
