Gloom over the solar industry

martes, 10 de junio de 2025

Trouble in the US and China | View in browser Today's newsletter comes from our ...
Trouble in the US and China |
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Today's newsletter comes from our team in China, where solar manufacturers and investors are gathering at the world's largest fair for their industry in Shanghai this week. You can read more about the conference here. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe

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Solar companies are showing cracks 

Concerns about the health of solar power companies are reaching a fever pitch in the world's two biggest economies — and two biggest greenhouse gas emitters. 

The bankruptcy filing of Sunnova Energy International Inc. on Monday has intensified fears that the US clean energy industry is beginning to buckle under the weight of President Donald Trump's anti-renewables policies, alongside high borrowing costs and tariffs.

In China, executives from several of the nation's embattled solar manufacturers gathered in Shanghai for the sector's largest annual conference, seeking answers to a persistently oversupplied market that has triggered billions of dollars in losses over the past year.

The bleak mood on both sides of the Pacific stands in contrast to what's been the brightest spot in the energy transition: global solar installations have quadrupled in the past five years, from 150 gigawatts in 2020 to 600 gigawatts last year, according to BloombergNEF data.

The industries' current challenges show there are still steep roadblocks ahead.

Photographer: Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg

Sunnova's bankruptcy comes at a grim time for rooftop solar in the US House Republicans have advanced a bill to repeal federal tax credits granted under former President Joe Biden's landmark climate law. Losing those incentives — now being debated in the US Senate — would "eliminate at least half of the market for residential solar energy," Roth Capital Partners analyst Phil Shen wrote in a research note.

Read More: Solar Bankruptcies Show US Clean Energy Teetering on the Brink

It's not just home-solar firms facing headwinds. Since January, businesses have canceled or delayed more than $14 billion in clean energy and electric vehicle investments, according to a recent report — evidence that the Trump administration's support for fossil fuels is eroding renewables' market foothold.

In China, the concern isn't direction but speed. The country has installed record volumes of panels and turbines in recent years — enough to reduce coal consumption in the power sector this year. But that surge has led to grid congestion and growing curtailment. New power pricing rules introduced earlier this month aim to address those issues but may significantly slow future installations.

That's unwelcome news for the country's panel manufacturing giants, which overbuilt during the boom and have pushed prices down to near break-even levels. Five of the biggest names — JA Solar Technology Co., Jinko Solar Co., Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Tongwei Co. and Trina Solar Co. — reported a combined loss of over 8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) in the first quarter alone.

For executives at the conference in Shanghai, there are no illusions about the struggles ahead.

"Overcapacity remains a Sword of Damocles hanging over our heads," said Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Technology Holdings Ltd. "The second half of this year to the first quarter of next year is a crucial window period for the supply-side reform of the photovoltaic industry. We need to work together to push the industry onto a high-quality development path." 

--With assistance from Dan Murtaugh, Ocean Hou and Mark Chediak

Brighter news  

42%
This is the predicted increase in new solar installations in Africa this year, compared with 2024, according to an industry report from the Global Solar Council in March.

Home economics 

"In most countries, the economics of residential solar don't depend so heavily on complex and hard-to-monetize tax incentives."
Pol Lezcano
BloombergNEF analyst
With many big solar companies in turmoil, Bloomberg Green explains how to navigate the market for solar panels on your roof.

More from Green

For analysts at Fitch Ratings, the recent demolition of a Swiss village by a glacier is fresh proof that climate change is altering the laws of mortgage risk.

"We expect physical climate events to happen more frequently and with more intensity," Will Rossiter, a director of enhanced analytics at Fitch, said in an interview. And "the impact that they're having on a greater number of assets within a portfolio could increase."

Against that backdrop, Fitch is now in the process of integrating physical climate risks into credit assessments. The move reflects an evolving concern among ratings firms and regulators alike that climate change is hitting the mortgage market — and the bonds that finance it — in ways that have yet to be adequately reflected in valuations. What happened in Switzerland should serve as a reminder that when climate shocks hit, their impact can be devastating, Rossiter said. 

"The value of those properties has gone from whatever it was to nothing essentially overnight," he said.

The village of Blatten after the Birch Glacier collapsed. Photographer: Alexandre Agrusti/AFP/Getty Images

Pakistan's climate minister accused India of using dams to disrupt the flow of the Indus River system, as both countries seek international support amid a fragile ceasefire agreement.

A group of New Zealand lawyers has begun proceedings against the government alleging that its greenhouse gas emissions reduction plan fails to fulfill basic requirements of the law.

The US is only sending observers to a UN conference on protecting the oceans that began Monday in France, part of the Trump administration's broader retreat from multilateral institutions and the fight against climate change.

Worth a listen

Western economies need to electrify and fast, but where are all the skilled workers going to come from to install the heat pumps, solar panels and batteries needed? On the latest episode of Zero, Akshat Rathi talks with Olivia Rudgard about the shortage of labor in electrification industries, and why some experts are calling it an 'existential' crisis. This is the second episode in Bottlenecks, a new series exploring the lesser known obstacles standing in the way of our electrified future. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

An engineer works on pipes installation inside a training house with an external heat pump at the Octopus Energy Ltd.'s training and R&D center in Slough, UK. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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