Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Water wars

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The ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding after their latest clash over the disputed Kashmir region. But access to a basic requirement of life highlights just how far apart they remain.

One of the more significant if lesser-noticed consequences of the flare-up in fighting between the neighbors was India's decision to suspend a 65-year-old agreement that governs how each country is allowed to use the shared rivers that run between them.

The Indus Waters Treaty governs each nation's use of the vast network of tributaries and waterways of the Indus river system that both draw on for everything from electricity to agriculture.

People fish along the confluence of Neelum and Jhelum rivers in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on May 4. Photographer: Farooq Naeem/AFP/Getty Images

India and Pakistan are water-scarce countries — and becoming more so as climate change takes hold — with huge populations of subsistence farmers dependent on the Indus.

That the treaty has held since it was signed in 1960, even during times of full-blown war, shows that these longtime rivals observed some guardrails.

No more.

Renegotiating the accord has been a longstanding goal of India's right wing, which say it's outdated and unfairly favors Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees an opportunity to settle those grievances.

It's not yet clear what New Delhi will demand in any future water talks. Despite threats, experts say that India doesn't have the capability to take extreme measures like cutting off Pakistan's supply. Islamabad says any attempt to choke off its water would constitute an act of war.

What's certain is that Pakistan's dependence on the river is greater than India's. That likely gives New Delhi the upper hand, and could provide leverage in negotiations over other matters of dispute.

"Water and blood can't flow together," Modi said after the treaty's suspension.

Whether the two sides can keep the water flowing — without spilling more blood — will be the next big test in relations. Dan Strumpf

Global Must Reads

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is due in Berlin tomorrow, a source says, after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz referred to an end to range limits on Ukraine using western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. NATO chief Mark Rutte meanwhile confirmed the alliance will seek to adopt a new defense-spending target of 5% of GDP at a June leaders' summit, including a 3.5% target for military equipment and 1.5% for defense-related outlays such as infrastructure. 

Emmanuel Macron is spearheading the latest effort by European Union leaders to woo Southeast Asian nations worried about becoming collateral damage in the US trade war and security disputes between Washington and Beijing. The French president is due in Indonesia and then Singapore after the EU signaled a more amicable approach to the Trump administration, saying it plans to fast-track negotiations to avert a transatlantic trade conflict. 

WATCH: What is behind Trump's trade war, and what's next?

US private equity firm Cerberus expressed interest in buying the lease for Australia's strategically important Port of Darwin from Landbridge Group, despite the Chinese firm insisting it has no interest in selling. Pressure is building for a change of ownership from the center-left Labor government which pledged during a recent election campaign to bring the key asset back into Australian hands.

South Korea's election to replace ousted conservative leader Yoon Suk Yeol offers to be a potential turning point that either brings stability to politics and markets after months of chaos or deepens painful divisions. The leadership vacuum since the end of last year has battered confidence, helping to push the economy into reverse just as Trump's trade tariffs cast a shadow over growth. Our explainer looks at the candidates and what's at stake in the June 3 vote.

Suriname's political future hangs in the balance after the two main parties were virtually tied in Sunday's election, reflecting the deep divide over how the South American nation should manage its economic recovery and newfound oil riches. The outcome sets the stage for weeks of horse-trading, since a two-thirds majority of the 51-member National Assembly is required to elect the president.

Suriname's president, Chandrikapersad Santokhi, displays an inked finger after voting in Paramaribo. Photographer: Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images

Germany is considering restrictions on military exports to Israel over concerns about civilian suffering in Gaza, a notable shift from one of the country's staunchest backers and biggest weapons suppliers. 

North Korea sharply criticized Trump's plan for a Golden Dome missile-defense system, a shield intended to counter threats from rivals including Pyongyang.

A Brazilian Supreme Court justice authorized the federal police to probe one of the sons of former President Jair Bolsonaro over allegations that he sought to intimidate members of the court while in the US.

Argentina's government will issue a five-year peso bond aimed at international investors, a move officials hailed as the nation's long-awaited return to global markets under President Javier Milei.

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Chart of the Day

Japan lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation for the first time in 34 years — despite posting a record amount of overseas assets, it was overtaken by Germany. Berlin's ascent reflects its substantial current-account surplus as well as the yen's depreciation last year, which also saw Germany replace Japan as the world's No. 3 economy.

And Finally

King Charles III arrived in Canada to open a new parliamentary session at the invitation of Prime Minister Mark Carney, a move designed in part to send a message to Trump about Canadian sovereignty. The pageantry of the occasion came with subtle nods to the fraught politics after Trump's repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st US state. Queen Camilla wore the Queen Mother's Diamond Maple Leaf Brooch, which was first gifted by King George VI to his wife ahead of their 1939 royal tour to Canada.

King Charles III and Queen Camilla arrive at Ottawa Airport yesterday. Photographer: Victoria Jones/Pool/Getty Images

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