Trump’s Asia shadow ~ ⛾:Kaffibolla

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The Americans aren't attending this week's summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Malaysia, but President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs are all anyone is talking about.

For weeks, Asean leaders have been stressing the need to fortify trade among themselves and worldwide as they seek to mitigate the impact of some of the steepest US levies announced. With high-level delegations from China and the Gulf region present, there's no better opportunity to present a united front.

Attendees during the 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Kuala Lumpur today. Photographer: Samsul Said/Bloomberg

At stake is a 10-nation regional economy spanning Laos to Indonesia that was projected to grow by more than 5% per year on its way to becoming the world's fourth largest by 2030. Whether they can get there without their biggest export market in the US is the question keeping economic officials up at night.

Counterparts in Europe and Japan are facing a similar dilemma, with Trump imposing and then delaying 50% tariffs on the European Union, while Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeks to tempt Trump with offers to repair US warships to try and cut a deal by next month's Group of Seven summit.

French President Emmanuel Macron is meanwhile in Vietnam vowing closer defense and energy ties as part his own tour of southeast Asia aimed at shoring up ties, a further indication of the shaking up of international alliances in response to Trump's disruption.

Negotiators from Asean countries hope to strike a deal to avert proposed tariff hikes ranging from 10% to 49%. They've also engaged in a spate of intra-regional visits in recent weeks to facilitate business closer to home.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim used his opening remarks today to call out Trump, saying his tariffs are putting strain on the world's trading system.

Any notion that this month's US deal with China would minimize the global trade conflict looks wide of the mark. — Philip Heijmans

Macron and Vietnamese President Luong Cuong after a press briefing at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi today. Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Trump said that he was considering new sanctions against Russia after a weekend of deadly missile and drone strikes on civilian targets across much of Ukraine. While he is growing visibly frustrated with the state of talks meant to deliver a ceasefire, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin "absolutely CRAZY!" yesterday, the US president has repeatedly threatened new sanctions in the past without following through.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's government is considering a new version of its master plan to boost production of high-end technological goods, sources say, signaling its intention to keep a firm grip on manufacturing as Trump looks to bring factories back to the US. Officials are drawing up proposals for a future iteration of Xi's flagship "Made in China 2025" campaign that prioritizes technology including chip-making equipment, largely sticking with a strategy that's been criticized by the US and Europe.

Robotic arms operate on a production line at the Nio factory in China's Anhui province. Photographer: Nicholas Takahashi/Bloomberg

Poland is entering the final stage of a presidential-election campaign that risks leaving pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk boxed in by a nationalist rival. Tens of thousands marched in Warsaw yesterday at opposing candidate rallies by Rafał Trzaskowski, the capital's mayor and a Tusk ally, and Karol Nawrocki of the right-wing opposition Law and Justice party, demonstrating the polarization in eastern Europe's biggest economy ahead of the June 1 runoff.

The ballot numbers added up for Romania's Nicușor Dan, the one-time math prodigy who defeated a formidable far-right challenger to win the Black Sea nation's presidency this month to cap six months of political upheaval. But Dan, the Bucharest mayor who will be sworn in as head of state today, will confront a wholly different set of numbers as he seeks to narrow what has become the EU's widest budget deficit.

Israel's military push in Gaza aims to take over 75% of the small coastal strip within two months, containing some 2 million people in three areas. The offensive seeks to finally defeat Hamas, or forcing the exile of its leadership, and press the militant group to release remaining hostages. The army already controls about 40% of Gaza.

Residents amongst building rubble following an Israeli airstrike at a refugee camp in Jabaliya, northern Gaza, Friday. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg

Trump said his administration's talks with Iran over the weekend were "very good" as he pushes to limit the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

Venezuela's ruling party swept regional and parliamentary elections in a landslide yesterday, tightening President Nicolás Maduro's grip on power after a low-turnout vote marred by widespread opposition abstention and international criticism.

Lawmakers in Canada's governing Liberal Party voted against adopting a mechanism that would have given them more power to oust Prime Minister Mark Carney as party leader in the future.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa — fresh off his unexpectedly strong election win — is seeking to cement his authority with a crime bill that would give his government emergency powers of the kind used in El Salvador.

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Chart of the Day

Trump said he would extend the deadline for the EU to face 50% tariffs until July 9 after a phone call with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The leader of the bloc's executive arm said earlier yesterday in a post on X that "Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively," but "a good deal" will need time.

And Finally

Holiday bookings to Japan from key Asian markets have plunged ahead of the busy summer season. The cause: Rumors of an impending earthquake prophesied in a manga graphic novel. Social media and viral posts have unsettled travelers and renewed attention on manga artist Ryo Tatsuki's prediction of a huge temblor that would inundate Japan with tsunami waves. Tatsuki, whom some claim predicted the 2011 quake, gives July 2025 as the date of the impending event in a novel that was first published back in 1999.

'The Future I Saw' by Ryo Tatsuki.

Thanks to the 30 people who answered Friday's quiz, and congratulations to Marc Weinberg, who was first to correctly identify the UK as the country whose prime minister hailed a "landmark deal" with the EU that he billed as a reset moment.

⛾:Kaffibolla

Monday, May 26, 2025