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Now, let’s get into this week’s selection of fund ideas 👇
Aixtron (AIXA GR) by Kerrisdale Capital
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT US) by Brown Advisory Beutel Goodman US Value Fund
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) by Jacob Funds
BVZ (BVZN SW) by Tactile Fund
Cadre (CDRE US) by Brown Advisory Small Cap Fundamental Value
Cardinal Health (CAH US) by Brown Advisory Mid Cap Growth
Cellebrite (CLBT US) by Voss Capital
Cellebrite (CLBT US) by Greenhaven Road Capital
Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) by Jacob Funds
Cushman & Wakefield (CWK US) by Brown Advisory Small Cap Fundamental Value
Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1 GY) by Gabelli Funds
Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC US) by Brown Advisory Small Cap Growth
Five9 (FIVN US) by Voss Capital
Flywire (FLYW US) by Voss Capital
Hologic (HOLX US) by Brown Advisory Large Cap Sustainable Value
Inogen Inc. (INGN US) by Jacob Funds
KKR (KKR US) by Greenhaven Road Capital
Netskope, (NTSK US) by Brown Advisory Small Cap Growth
Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd. (3524 JP) by Gabelli Funds
Omeros (OMER US) by Jacob Funds
PAR Technologies (PAR LN) by Greenhaven Road Capital
Parsons Corporation (PSN US) by Brown Advisory Small Cap Growth
Polar Capital Holdings plc (POLR LN) by Gabelli Funds
PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) by Brown Advisory Global Leaders
Quaker Houghton (KWR US) by Clearbridge Small Cap Strategy
Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) by Gabelli Funds
Samsara Inc. (IOT US) by Brown Advisory Large Cap Growth
Smurfit Westrock (SWM ID) by Brown Advisory Large Cap Sustainable Value
Textron Inc. (TXT US) by Gabelli Funds
United Parks and Resorts (PRKS US) by Voss Capital
Workday (WDAY US) by Brown Advisory Global Leaders
Xponential Fitness (XPOF US) by Voss Capital
Youngone (111770 KS) by Palm Harbour Capital
Zegona (ZEG LN) by Norbury Capital
Thesis:
Aixtron is a leading semiconductor capital equipment company poised for significant growth as a key enabler of advanced technologies for AI and data centers, with potential for over 270% upside in its stock value by 2028.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Vbvugjkbaq-XzDV_KawQipsFFeR3Khj0/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Aixtron (Frankfurt:AIXA) is a $1.8 billion market capitalization semiconductor capital equipment company, strategically important in the industry. As the dominant supplier of metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment for compound semiconductors, Aixtron holds a 70-90% market share, significantly impacting tech transitions, particularly in AI and data centers. Key materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) will drive growth in power semiconductors while Aixtron supplies the necessary technology. The increasing demand for data centers will create a surge in revenue by 2027, with potential for significant long-term growth in various sectors, including EVs and renewable energy. Despite current stock lows and operational declines, we expect a robust increase in revenue, projecting Aixtron to exceed $1 billion annually in future years, with an anticipated substantial stock price increase. The current valuation presents an attractive investment opportunity, with estimates suggesting over 270% upside by 2028 as demand increases.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Applied Materials Inc. is poised for long-term growth due to its leading position in the semiconductor capital equipment market and expanding Service & Parts business, despite facing near-term headwinds.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wraMBmw_LRmUWs0kotVqd_RES1OCPhwL/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
We initiated a new position in Applied Materials Inc. during the quarter. The company is a major supplier of semiconductor capital equipment and has market-leading and well-entrenched positions across several segments. The semiconductor capital (semi-cap) equipment sector represents a collection of oligopoly-type sub-markets that have high barriers to entry. There is secular demand growth for semiconductor content across applications, coupled with dramatically increasing chip complexity. We believe that the company’s Service & Parts business (~one-quarter of total revenues currently) is likely to expand, which could dampen the effects of industry cyclicality over the long term. Sales into Chinese semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs) and balancing AI demand with weakness in other areas are near-term headwinds for the company, but we do not believe this will materially impact its long-term fundamentals.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Bed Bath & Beyond is an intriguing investment opportunity due to its stake in the tZERO exchange, management restructuring efforts, potential asset sales, and a refocused retail strategy emphasizing online operations and private-label brands.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3FvOQgaYxrH4kFjg0U3V6wbbBpfHW4_/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Bed Bath & Beyond may appear to be an unlikely addition to this fund, but the key attraction here is the growing interest in tokenization and the company’s stake in the tZERO exchange, which provides exposure to the development of alternative trading platforms. The company has recently appointed new management, which has begun implementing restructuring efforts aimed at improving operations and exploring strategic options. There is also the potential for asset sales or spinoffs that could unlock value. We believe the market may not fully reflect these factors in the current share price. While not a core part of our investment thesis, the company’s retail operations have been appropriately re-sized, which includes a small experiment with reopening a few offline locations of its well-known flagship brand, with a tighter focus on core categories and private-label brands. Most of the retail business will remain online, which should improve operational efficiency and stabilize profitability.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
BVZ is a deeply undervalued Alpine rail and tourism asset play, where overlooked equity stakes, premium tourism properties like the Gornergrat Bahn, and appreciating real estate add up to more than double the company’s current valuation—offering a compelling case for long-term investors seeking rare, income-generating assets in a tightly held market.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Rlol9_PGk-2Q0DtJ-B49NLZXOlZ5bSrs/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
BVZ makes for the most interesting discussion because of its ownership in other Alpine railway companies, including one that is traded on a specialized OTC market operated by various Swiss banks. The Swiss OTC-traded company in question is Zermatt Bergbahnen, in which BVZ has a 22% interest. This stake has a market value of CHF 71 million, equal to 35% of BVZ’s market capitalization. BVZ has other valuable equity investments, including a 34% stake in Matterhorn Terminal AG and a 50% interest in Glacier Express AG. At a conservative 15x 2025 net income (for Matterhorn) or dividends received (for Glacier Express) these assets are worth another CHF 70 million. As valuable as these investments may be, the company’s crown jewel is the Gornergrat Bahn, which bills itself as having the best view of the Matterhorn. This railway earned CHF 15 million in 2024. I think the Gornergrat Bahn is easily worth 20x net income, but at a conservative 15x, it’s worth CHF 225 million to BVZ. Lastly, consider BVZ’s extensive real estate holdings, which are held on the balance sheet at CHF 121 million. Even if we haircut these holdings to an even CHF 100 million, we’re up to CHF 466 million versus the company’s current valuation of just CHF 205 million.
Of course, the full story is not quite that simple.
Besides its valuable tourism assets, BVZ has a large “mobility” segment that operates a rail network in partnership with the Swiss government. This rail network is essentially a form of public transit, operating at around breakeven. The company is not permitted to receive dividends from this segment, so the segment essentially does not exist with respect to BVZ’s valuation. On the plus side, this also means that the mobility segment’s substantial borrowings should be excluded from BVZ’s enterprise value as they are non-recourse to the parent company and all other subsidiaries. The existence of this debt has the effect of making BVZ appear far more richly valued than it really is. BVZ shares are closely held by a collection of old Swiss families and a smattering of local investment funds. While it is unlikely that the company changes hands any time soon, BVZ has been good about paying significant and increasing dividends. Meanwhile, the value of the company’s rare assets will continue to increase.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Cadre is a high-quality manufacturer in niche markets with low cyclicality and an attractive valuation, poised for margin improvements after recent acquisitions.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mYqN4cXtTgBaHQoZF9chdYV9w3ZtPTUe/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Cadre (CDRE) is a small manufacturer focused on a number of niche markets in which it has high market share. We believe that the company’s targeted markets have a lower cyclicality, which when combined with the low capital intensity of the business makes Cadre a high-quality manufacturer. The company trades at an attractive valuation given the high likelihood of an inflection in margins in the next year after recent acquisitions and material improvements in operations.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Cardinal Health is benefiting from rising demand for specialty therapies and expanding its services while improving margins in its medical distribution business.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nLv0sCNvKlaVYT7gA9rpoaknMQn2kq8q/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Cardinal Health (CAH), one of the three major U.S. drug distributors, continues to benefit from rising demand for complex specialty and biologic therapies, where it is expanding value-added service offerings. The company also serves adjacent markets such as third-party logistics and the fast-growing nuclear medicine space. Its medical distribution business remains an execution turnaround story, with new management narrowing service gaps with peers and showing early progress in improving margins.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Cellebrite (CLBT) is a high-margin, cash-generating software platform transforming federal law enforcement through accelerating growth drivers and strategic acquisitions, trading at depressed valuations that imply over 90% upside as the market re-rates its long-term potential.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HBICYaGMGbnl_f9iMCNGR6CMzmJxbw5y/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
CLBT is a duopolistic “Rule of 40+” compounder (with a rational private equity owned competitor) trading at a steep discount to software and government intelligence/cybersecurity peers. The set-up in CLBT shares can be characterized as arbitraging depressed near-term sentiment and extremely positive medium to long-term fundamentals. Priced like a ho-hum company selling into a saturated law enforcement TAM, the market is underestimating CLBT’s ongoing successful transition into a full blown “case to closure” software platform. Shares can re-rate higher as the revenue growth acceleration story of 2026 comes into sharper focus on the back of a resurgence of federal spending, the company’s Inseyets (“insights”) upgrade cycle, and successful cross-selling initiatives with modules like Guardian’s cloud evidence management system (growing >100%) and AI analytics from Pathfinder (growing 25%). The recent acquisition of Corcellium acts as a revenue growth accelerant as well as being a strategic “acqui-hire” that strengthens the company’s ties to federal agencies while expanding the platform’s capabilities.
Judging by the company’s valuation, which we currently peg near 16x 2027 FCF, (a big discount to the market overall) we believe the market is bracing for growth to substantially deteriorate following a reversal in 2026 (or alternatively, the market is skeptical of a 2026 reacceleration). While 2027 might not grow as high as 2026 due to the unusual circumstances going on at the Federal government, it is our view that new CEO Tom Hogan is aggressively putting in new, longer term growth drivers like their recently released Investigator product and looking at potential TAM expanding acquisitions. Cellebrite has good penetration within Forensic units, but their push into the large Investigative Units is what we believe drives the next phase of growth. It’s our view that 2026 is the year the market becomes more comfortable with Cellebrite as a true “platform” story, which generally results in multiple expansion.
CLBT has exceptional cash flow dynamics and elite profitability, converting 130-140% of EBITDA into free cash flow, putting it in rarefied air on “Rule of 40” scores when using revenue growth and FCF margins in lieu of EBITDA margins. The involvement of two activist investors (ValueAct and True Wind Capital) at CLBT’s majority shareholder, Japanese listed Sun Corporation, materially increases the likelihood of a full sale of the company within the next two years. In an optimistic scenario, if growth re-accelerates to the 25% range, coupled with 50% incremental margins, we think the stock would be worth ~$33 on 2026 numbers, giving shares 90%+ upside from here over the next year or so.
The silver lining of the dislocations caused by a market increasingly characterized by extreme dichotomies is valuations: half of our portfolio is currently trading at or near all-time low valuations, which we believe offers an attractive forward setup as the market remains fixated on growth deceleration. We are refraining from drastically changing track based on a few weeks of acute underperformance and instead continue to underwrite our individual investments in a conservative fashion and rebalance the portfolio based on our estimates of the best risk/reward set-ups. For now, “we are on to Cincinnati.”
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Cellebrite is well-positioned for future growth due to its unique products, high customer value, and upcoming AI tools, despite current market challenges.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10xsedjsY-7Wpy8KC27107CSaY1fl22y6/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Software multiples may stay lower for the foreseeable future, but the notion that local law enforcement agencies are going to have the budget or talent to use AI or “vibe code” software to unlock cell phones made by Apple and Google seems unlikely. Cellebrite has a suite of products that work together and are designed for a special use case. Even if an agency built the capacity to “crack” mobile devices, Cellebrite offers tools to analyze and manage the data in a manner that is compliant with search warrants, all while properly documenting the chain of custody. Cellebrite’s tools cost far below 1% of any of their customers’ budgets and increase case closure rates and convictions. The value proposition for customers is extremely high, and the likelihood of recreating Cellebrite’s capabilities is extremely low. It is far easier to see the opportunity AI presents for Cellebrite. Their end customers are plagued by case backlogs and a shortage of technically savvy employees; using technology seems like a better path than hoping crime stops or going on a massive hiring binge. This month (October 2025), Cellebrite announced that they will be releasing investigative AI tools in January. Cellebrite should be a large beneficiary of AI, defying the 2025 narrative that all software companies are in trouble. Cellebrite investors have been concerned about DOGE, the cancelling of contracts, and the impact on Federal budgets (17% of CLBT revenue) as well as the shutdown of the U.S. government. These factors have led to a slowdown of growth, with ARR expected to grow 16%-20% this year vs. 25% last year. However, I believe that Cellebrite’s growth issue is temporary, as does the company. As the CEO said on the last earnings call, “[w]e view the recent legislation in the U.S. as a catalyst that will soon convert the current spending headwind into a tailwind. Based on the ongoing dialogue with our customers, we expect these needs will lead to a resurgence of growth in 2026.” Cellebrite is well-positioned to benefit from “The Big Beautiful Bill,” given its focus on immigration, human trafficking, and stopping the flow of fentanyl. In addition, Cellebrite is going through the Fed Ramp approval process, which will make it easier for Federal agencies to purchase Cellebrite products. With Cellebrite, we have a company with limited competition, high insider ownership, a strong balance sheet, 34% free cash flow margin, and low stock-based compensation. Given that it is already a fast-growing and efficient “Rule of 45” company, and that its main customers facing ever larger technical challenges, I see a very long runway for organic growth, new products, and continued profitability. Software is not at the “cool table” right now, but the recurring revenue, organic growth, and operating leverage for Cellebrite are real. Am I frustrated by CLBT’s -15% share price decline year-to-date through Q3? Absolutely. Do I want to own Cellebrite in 2026? Absolutely.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Circle Internet Group is a growing digital financial infrastructure provider and the issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, which benefits from regulatory support and partnerships that enhance its market position.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3FvOQgaYxrH4kFjg0U3V6wbbBpfHW4_/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
The Jacob Internet Fund added two new positions in the quarter, Circle Internet Group and Bed Bath & Beyond. Circle provides digital financial infrastructure and issues the popular USDC stablecoin. USDC is the second-largest issued stablecoin and has seen continued growth and increasing market share. Around the world, stablecoins are being used for a growing number of transactions across digital finance, including payments and settlement, which will likely expand the total addressable market for these coins over time. Circle operates under a regulatory framework and provides transparent financial disclosures, which differentiates it from most of its competitors, including the largest stablecoin, Tether. The company also has partnerships with established industry participants, including Coinbase, which we believe supports future growth in this market.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Cushman & Wakefield is a global commercial real estate broker poised for growth and reduced debt, potentially narrowing its valuation gap with peers.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mYqN4cXtTgBaHQoZF9chdYV9w3ZtPTUe/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) is a global commercial real estate broker. Even in a depressed real estate environment, the business generated significant levels of free cash flow. Over the past several years, new leadership has re-focused the organization to kick-start growth in their real estate services business and to deleverage the balance sheet. We believe these actions will narrow the significant valuation spread between the modest valuation for CWK and its peers.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Deutsche Boerse AG is a leading financial infrastructure provider in Europe poised to benefit from increased investment flows and long-term trends in market centralization and electronification.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WzTyDzO3KjRf93UAZdY2pWeqV0ir66UT/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Deutsche Boerse AG (0.6% of net assets as of September 30, 2025) (DB1 - $267.79/€228.09 – Frankfurt Stock Exchange), headquartered in Frankfurt, is a financial infrastructure provider operating dominant derivatives, commodities, FX, and equity exchanges in Europe. More recently, the company has expanded into business lines across both pre-trade (data & analytics services, portfolio management software) and post-trade (clearing, settlement, custody, and shareholder services) disciplines as a diversified vendor to asset managers. Nearer-term, Deutsche Boerse should benefit from increased investment flow and asset creation in Europe, as global investors rebalance exposures and as new fiscal stimulus programs across Western Europe, and Germany in particular, take effect. Longer-term, Deutsche Boerse remains a key beneficiary of centralization and electronification of financial markets and secular tailwinds behind the investment management industry.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) is a hidden gem in the industrial sector with improving margins, a strong balance sheet, and a commitment to operational enhancements under CEO Paul Sternlieb.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/16ll9rBTS5ITComEUPmCTgE5pToqZA1DQ/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC) is a high-mix, low-volume manufacturer of heavy-duty, mission-critical tools and has become a high-quality small cap industrial company. EPAC is now over 3.5 years into the tenure of CEO Paul Sternlieb, with operational and cultural improvement evident, but given its small size and checkered history before the current management team, EPAC is still under-the-radar and a hidden gem. Margins will likely continue to improve, and with a pristine balance sheet, we believe management is in a strong position to continue repurchasing shares and tucking in quality tool and tool-related assets that will increase intrinsic value.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Five9 (FIVN) is undervalued despite its strong growth potential in AI-enabled contact centers, trading at a significant discount compared to peers, with underlying demand remaining robust.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HBICYaGMGbnl_f9iMCNGR6CMzmJxbw5y/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Take for instance, FIVN, whose subscription growth went from 16% in Q2 to 10% in Q3 and the stock has extrapolated the deceleration with minimal terminal cash flows assumed. Our read of the business’s future is more optimistic, and we believe some positive AI proof points are still stacking up in FIVN’s favor. While the “land and expand” AI story is taking longer to materialize in the P&L due to complex implementation cycles, the underlying demand remains robust—Enterprise AI revenue grew over 40% again in the quarter and Enterprise AI bookings grew over 80% y/y. We see the current growth headwinds as minor execution issues rather than sure signs of structural obsolescence.
Competition in the CCaaS space is no doubt intense, but FIVN, in our analysis, is currently priced for negative growth indefinitely despite leading the shift to AI-enabled contact centers and acting as a software platform toll road, so to speak, for any AI-point solutions that gain commercial traction. The stock now trades at just 1x 2027 revenue (~1.5x gross profit) and 5x Adjusted EBITDA, a massive discount to software peers trading at ~13x EBITDA, and major discounts to recent and relevant transaction comps such as enterprise competitor Genesys receiving a $15 billion private valuation mark (>5x sales), and the recent acquisition of low-growth, levered Verint by Thoma Bravo at ~3x gross profit. We would also note that activist Anson Funds (who have board representation and information asymmetry) more than doubled their position recently. The current valuation provides a significant margin of uncertainty and is further buttressed by a new $150 million share repurchase program, coupled with call options on the AI cycle and potential renewed M&A interest in a consolidating sector.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Flywire is a strong investment opportunity due to its impressive growth trajectory, improved profitability, and favorable valuation compared to peers, despite market misconceptions regarding international student enrollment risks.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HBICYaGMGbnl_f9iMCNGR6CMzmJxbw5y/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Our conviction in FLYW remains high (~10% position, the largest in the portfolio). The company has gotten back on a “beat and raise” cadence for three consecutive quarters now and we view the ongoing divergence between the company’s fundamentals and its stock price as a significant buying opportunity; while the share price has languished, estimates are moving sharply higher following a ~8% revenue beat in the most recent quarter. The consensus bear case is still chock-full of false fears that international student enrollment caps—similar to recent disruptions in Canada and Australia—will plague Flywire’s largest education markets, the US and UK. However, our variant view suggests these risks remain drastically overpriced. Our analysis shows that even a severe 25% decline in first-year US students would impact total company revenue by only ~2%, and we note that the UK business is actually growing ~40% despite some restrictions having already been in place (they are rapidly taking market share). New integrations with the largest ERP systems that UK universities use is broadening the TAM for their Student Financial Services (SFS) platform, which not only increases the student population using Flywire, but it also adds lucrative new revenue line items like Payment Plans and generally helps with overall student retention. The UK’s ongoing strong growth, with guidance for more, also undermines another Bear point we have heard postured, which is that Flywire is bumping up against its “TAM limits and the growth runway is limited. If your most mature market can continue to grow in the 30-40% range, and you are just now moving into the “land” space in many other European markets, we would argue the opportunity to “expand” remains rather robust. Furthermore, the company is finding their operational groove in their other markets as well, with their healthcare business expected to significantly accelerate in 2026 off the back of multiple large contract wins, and their emerging B2B business growing “over 70%” for the second consecutive year.
But wait, there’s more. Flywire is combining their accelerated growth with rapidly improving profitability (Voss Sauce), with incremental EBITDA margins hitting over 40% over the last twelve months. Valued at roughly 3x EV/Gross Profit and under 10x EBITDA (and now 9x our 2027 FCF), FLYW compares favorably to vertical niche payment-oriented peers like Toast at 11x. Thus, we believe the risk/reward is still heavily skewed to the upside along with the decent probability that FLYW is a medium-term takeover target.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Hologic (HOLX) is a leading global diagnostics company specializing in women’s health, particularly in breast imaging and molecular diagnostics, with a strong focus on consumables and service contracts that drive robust margins and free cash flow.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TEp0nilRuBSWUeR5kgpU0-Cdo1MEC83k/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Hologic (HOLX) is a global diagnostics company focusing primarily on women’s health. HOLX has a notable presence in breast health offering a full spectrum of products and services from screening/mammography to downstream interventions including biopsies and surgical imaging. HOLX is also a major molecular diagnostics player, particularly with sexually transmitted infections and respiratory tests. HOLX’s Sustainable Cash Flow Advantage centers around its suite of life-saving products that work to detect, diagnose and treat a variety of conditions for women’s health. HOLX is a dominant player in 3D breast imaging with 80% market share in North America. The CapEx environment has weighed on breast imaging sales, extending its average age of fleet well beyond historical norms. With recent changes to segment leadership, underlying sales force restructuring and a pending new platform introduction in 2026, we believe we have seen the trough in breast imaging. Further, we see assay/testing cross-sell opportunities within a diagnostic footprint that saw strong placement growth during the pandemic. While known for its breast imaging equipment, we like the fact that ~80% of HOLX’s revenues are driven by consumables and service contracts on its fleet of equipment. This helps to drive industry leading gross and operating margins as well as free cash flow conversion for HOLX given the capital light nature of the business. With the stock significantly underperforming over the last two years and valuation near ten-year lows, we believe the current entry point is attractive.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Inogen is stabilizing its business with strong management and a dominant market share in portable oxygen concentrators, poised for growth amid an aging population.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3FvOQgaYxrH4kFjg0U3V6wbbBpfHW4_/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Inogen develops portable oxygen concentrators for patients with chronic respiratory conditions. The company has struggled through years of mismanagement and share losses, as lower-priced, often foreign, competitors flooded the markets. However, the business has stabilized lately and Inogen retains a dominant market share and leading brand, which sustains a price premium. New management has done an excellent job guiding the company over the past couple of years, improving profitability and reaccelerating innovation in a market that should have years and years of secular growth ahead due to the country’s aging population.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
KKR is a diversified asset manager with significant growth potential despite current market challenges facing alternative asset managers.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10xsedjsY-7Wpy8KC27107CSaY1fl22y6/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
KKR is another of our holdings that is DOWN for the year. Similar to software companies, alternative asset managers are out of favor. Alternative managers including Blackstone, Apollo, Carlyle, and Blue Owl have all seen lower share prices. The two most prevalent concerns for the alternative asset managers relate to traditional private equity and private credit. The “traditional private equity is challenged” argument goes something like, “private equity funds are being forced to hold companies longer, so limited partners are not getting cash back from their legacy investments, so they cannot or will not be investing as aggressively in private equity going forward.” This is supported by quotes from the managers of large endowments and pension funds. Now, let’s look at KKR specifically. Traditional private equity funds represent approximately 22% of KKR’s AUM, so while private equity is part of their business, it is not their whole business. Additionally, KKR has grown AUM by growing their investor base, not just relying on ever larger allocations from a few large investors. The limited partners in KKR’s private equity funds have also gotten back almost 2X the capital that they have put into private equity over the last eight years.
In the words of KKR’s Co-CEO on their last earnings call:
“So, we read the same headlines you do... last April, we had shared a target for fundraising for 2024 through 2026 at over $300 billion...we’re ahead of pace and feel really good about the target we shared with you... So, we’re having more strategic partnership dialogues, more multiproduct dialogues. And that plays to our strengths... Then you add on Private Wealth and Capital Group and GA (insurance), it just feels really good right now.”
KKR continues to have a significant opportunity with individuals. There is over $190 trillion of wealth in [global high net worth] individual hands, and less than 1.5% of that has been in private markets (link). As KKR Co-CEO Scott Nuttall said, “Mass affluent individual investors historically have not had an easy way to access these types of products and strategies... And so over the coming years, if we’re correct and you start to see allocations go from the low single digits to the mid-single digits, that literally is trillions of dollars that have the potential to move to alternative products”. KKR is currently raising over a billion dollars per month and ramping from the mass affluent.
Recently, private credit funds have presented another concern for alternative managers. In September, auto parts supplier First Brands filed for bankruptcy amid an accounting scandal revealed over $2 billion dollars missing following several years of debt-funded acquisitions. The same month also saw the unexpected bankruptcy of an auto lender called Tricolor after Fifth Third Bank warned of alleged external loan-related fraud.
Thus far, none of the First Brands or Tricolor losses have been linked to KKR funds, but the concern is that if there is one cockroach, there are many cockroaches. Parallels are also being drawn to 2007 and Bear Stearns’s early losses in collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) being the canary in the coal mine for the financial crisis. There may in fact be more cockroaches... only time will tell. Importantly though, the alternative asset managers do not appear to have the same leverage profile that the investment banks like Bear Stearns had entering the financial crisis. They thus do not appear as exposed to a “run on the bank.” However, the witch’s brew of off-balance sheet loans, pledging the same collateral multiple times, and deceptive accounting practices does at least rhyme with 2007.
Time will tell if the private credit issues are idiosyncratic or systematic. For KKR, private credit represents less than 20% of AUM, so it is a part of the business but not the business. Here is where KKR’s “One KKR” ethos may be helpful. KKR employees are compensated based on how the entire KKR firm does, not just their silo, which should reduce the perverse incentives that can arise in financial firms to make risky loans and get paid before the music stops playing. In the case of KKR, insiders own over 30% of the firm and are compensated based on overall firm performance. Issues may arise in KKR’s private credit business, but if I had to own one alternative asset manager, it would be KKR.
Alternative asset managers are out of vogue in 2025, but I contend that they remain among the best businesses. Share price headwinds are not showing up in the financial statements. As KKR management said in August, “[t]his momentum is flowing through our financial results, with greater than 25% growth in Fee Related Earnings, Total Operating Earnings and Adjusted Net Income on a trailing 12-month basis. We remain highly constructive as we enter the second half of the year.”
KKR is a diversified asset manager. Certain products like private credit may go in and out of favor, but KKR’s scale and track record should remain attractive to their customers. Absent a series of fraudulent transactions in KKR private credit, for which there is currently ZERO evidence, I remain convinced that KKR’s AUM will continue to rise, as will management fees, incentive fees and, eventually, share price.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Netskope, Inc. is a technology leader in Cloud Network Cyber Security, offering innovative solutions for stronger security and performance in Enterprise networks, with significant growth potential in the coming years.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/16ll9rBTS5ITComEUPmCTgE5pToqZA1DQ/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
We participated in Netskope, Inc.’s (NTSK) IPO. Netskope is the technology leader in Cloud Network Cyber Security. The company took a novel approach to connecting Enterprise Networks to the Cloud which enables stronger security and higher network performance, which is becoming increasingly important as the rate of cyber security breaches increases. There is a large multi-billion-dollar legacy technology replacement opportunity in front of it, which we believe will drive durable growth over the next 3 to 5 years. It also has a unique way of inspecting and monitoring the flow of Enterprise data, which has become a higher priority for Enterprises as they look to adopt Generative AI technology.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of specialized glass cloth for printed circuit boards, holding an 80% market share, but faces potential long-term risks from competitors expanding capacity.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WzTyDzO3KjRf93UAZdY2pWeqV0ir66UT/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd. (1.0% of net assets as of September 30, 2025) (3110 – $44.57/¥6,590.54 – Tokyo) is a maker of glass cloth used in copper clad laminate, the base material of printed circuit boards. As semiconductors become more powerful, and as the density of chips on a printed circuit board increases, heat volatility becomes a greater problem. Copper and laminate must expand at the same rate under such conditions or risk ‘mission critical’ damage. Nitto Boseki’s glass cloth is engineered for this purpose. Other materials (e.g., MetroCirc of Murata (6981)) are expensive and still experimental. The extremely high specifications needed to manufacture glass cloth mean few players exist globally. Nitto Boseki has an 80% market share. The risk is that competitors AGC (5201), Taiwan Glass (1802.TW), and AGY (private U.S.) could expand capacity more quickly and erode Nitto Boseki’s position in the longer term.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
Omeros is a biotechnology company focused on complement-related diseases, with a promising monoclonal antibody, Narsoplimab, awaiting FDA approval for a serious clotting disorder, and is in talks for a potential partnership to strengthen its financial position.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3FvOQgaYxrH4kFjg0U3V6wbbBpfHW4_/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Omeros is a biotechnology company with a pipeline focused on complement-related diseases and immunology. The company’s latest-stage product is a monoclonal antibody called Narsoplimab, which is facing a key approval decision from the FDA later this year for the treatment of a condition called hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy, a clotting disorder that is quite difficult to treat with current drugs and often deadly for patients. After a roller coaster of a development process, we feel the chances of approval are strong, and the risk/reward ratio is quite favorable. Omeros, which has in the past pursued almost entirely a go-it-alone strategy, is also in late-stage discussions for a possible partnership that if successfully completed would address balance sheet concerns that we believe are also leading to a discount in the market.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
Thesis:
PAR Technologies is a high-potential investment facing temporary growth challenges, but with several major opportunities, including a potential deal with McDonald’s, that could significantly enhance its valuation.
Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10xsedjsY-7Wpy8KC27107CSaY1fl22y6/view?usp=drivesdk
Analysis:
Owning a meaningful position in PAR Technologies (PAR) has been frustrating. The five-year chart shows we’ve been early, and its 40% decline in over just the last two months of the quarter certainly tests conviction. Here’s why we’re still owners… (I say “we” because a significant portion of my family’s liquid net worth is invested in Greenhaven Road’s Fund.)
There is no “scandal” at PAR. In fact, PAR’s largest customer, Burger King, has added products over the course of 2025, doubling down on their PAR relationship, and PAR signed more customers during Q3 than in any other quarter in the company’s history.
Still, PAR has been put firmly in the investor penalty box with at least two major “sins”. The first is that it is a software company, and the second is that its growth has decelerated. These “sins”, combined with the company starting the year with a healthy valuation, have been a painful recipe.
Let’s look at both “sins” in detail.
As the winners and losers of AI are being sorted out, software companies have been placed in the loser bucket and software multiples have declined.
As discussed in the Cellebrite section of the letter, Altermeter Capital’s data indicates that the Enterprise Value to Next 12 Months Revenue for “medium growth” companies’ (those with growth rates between 15% and 25%), which most closely describes PAR, declined from 10.6X at the start of the year to 7.8X at the end of Q3. This implies a decline of 26% on this metric. When you strip out their hardware business, PAR is trading below 5X on this metric as of quarter-end.
In addition to being branded with a scarlet letter for being a software company, PAR’s pariah status also stems from the deceleration of its growth rate, which lowers the company’s multiple. While Altermeter’s data does not include PAR, their data shows the correlation between growth and multiple.
The most obvious question is why did the growth rate decline from north of 20% to 16% and what can we expect going forward? Is the next stop 10%?
One of the challenges for PAR is that their business is inherently lumpy. For their Point-of-Sale systems (POS), restaurant chains typically run an RFP process which occurs on the restaurant chain’s timeline. If PAR is fortunate enough to win, the implementation is then driven by both the corporate office as well as each individual franchisee’s timeline. This is not a situation where PAR can ramp up marketing spend on Facebook to drive revenues and “make the quarter”. PAR is dependent upon others for the timing of their revenues and installations.
This year has seen a confluence of events drive PAR’s growth rate down. Based on “expert network” calls, I believe that Inspire Brands, which owns both Sonic (3,500 locations) and Buffalo Wild Wings (1,300 table service locations), selected PAR as the winner of their RFP processes but ultimately decided to remain with their legacy provider. There is no “break fee” and either or both chains could still migrate to PAR, but not in 2025. I estimate that the combination of Sonic and Buffalo Wild Wings not implementing and other customers delaying implementation negatively impacted PAR’s expected 2025 growth by 3-5%.
Burger King’s pause in implementations earlier in the year added a second driver to PAR’s growth deceleration. While this sounds very concerning, the shift actually was a result of Burger King’s decision to add PAR’s back-office product, a decision that ultimately increases the contract value by more than 25%. However, when we are looking solely at 2025 growth rates, this “good news” is “bad news”. The Burger King pause likely impacted 2025 growth by another 1-2%.
The third driver of growth deceleration was PAR’s decision to delay implementations of already signed contracts for TASK. TASK is PAR’s entry into international markets. PAR is delaying the implementation on a “few million” dollars of recurring revenue to pursue a large Tier 1 opportunity. In the short term, this is impacting 2025 growth by another 1-2%.
Unfortunately, PAR cannot speak about the RFPs they are pursuing and will not provide any details, so what follows is my best estimate of the situation based on conversations with industry contacts. PAR is now a finalist with a shot at winning McDonald’s and their 45,000 locations worldwide. A McDonald’s win would represent well over $100M per year in recurring revenue for PAR. McDonald’s is a true whale for PAR, which ended the quarter with $288M in recurring revenue. McDonald’s has more than 5X the number of locations globally as does Burger King (US), which has been PAR’s largest customer to date.
Why could McDonald’s make sense and be in “play”? PAR’s success with Burger King makes a McDonald’s implementation plausible because PAR has proven success at scale. In addition, McDonald’s has been a hardware customer of PAR for 40+ years. More importantly, McDonald’s is already a TASK loyalty customer in Asia and has significantly expanded the number of countries using TASK, indicating some level of satisfaction with TASK.
McDonald’s is also experiencing technology challenges, with entire countries reporting hours-long outages in 2024. When the POS is down, the restaurant is closed (link). Currently, McDonald’s uses a proprietary POS software program based off the code from a Brazilian company they purchased over a decade ago. Their current approach is expensive, with over 4,000 developers dedicated to their restaurant technology globally.
PAR management’s decision to defer revenue to focus engineering resources on an RFP indicates to me that TASK is in the “lab” building a McDonald’s version of the software. I believe they are a “finalist” building a version of McDonald’s that reflects McDonald’s menus and kitchen configurations and successfully integrates with personnel systems and online ordering partners. In order to get a chance for a pilot program to be implemented in the field and ultimately get a chance at the larger implementation, TASK must do almost all of the integration work upfront to prove the software can be a solution.
As investors, it can be hard to be patient while PAR incurs the expense of such a substantial undertaking with no guarantee of winning. From the outside, it is really hard to handicap the likelihood of winning, but I think deferring $5M of recurring revenue into 2026 to improve the chances of winning McDonald’s is a chance worth taking.
Fortunately for PAR (and us), there is more than one large RFP in play. In addition to McDonald’s, there are three other Top 20 quick-service restaurants (QSRs) being competed for. The following scenario exercise is illustrative in the exercise of trying to answer the question, “Can PAR return to 20% growth?”
Winning any of the four Tier 1 opportunities should add points of growth to PAR’s growth rate and provide a path back to 20% for 2026/2027. If we assume that each RFP is an independent event (may not be) and there is a 1/3 chance of winning each, that means more than 80% chance that we win at least one of the four RFP. If each RFP is a $50M opportunity, 20% organic growth rates mean that we should win one RFP. Having just one goal has a ½ chance of winning all 4 RFP, reducing the chance to well under 5%.
To further illustrate the argument that PAR is a high expected value, uncertain timing investment, let’s look at the four large RFPs we believe are underway. I have estimated their sizes and continued with the 1/3 chance of winning
The timing of the win(s) (if any) and the roll-outs will likely not occur fully in 2026, but there is $180M+ in ARR in play and any win will add multiple points of growth (last column). The expected annual increase of all the RFPs is close to $60M.
The market is extrapolating stagnant growth, but the TASK revenue is deferred rather than forgone, and there are several large RFPs in play. Looking one year out, it is entirely plausible that PAR’s contracted ARR is above $400M and growth is at or above 20%. Applying the current 7.8X EV/Sales multiple would result in more than a double from today’s share price. If multiples revert back to beginning of the year levels, it is approximately a triple from here.
There are also several logical acquirers for PAR, including Thoma Bravo and Door Dash which could accelerate value realization. PAR is a lumpy business that will smooth out with scale, but there is a credible argument that it should be part of a larger organization. That drumbeat may grow louder from the shareholder base if there remains a disconnect between intrinsic value and share price.
I believe that we will ultimately be rewarded for our patience in PAR. Success will not come down to winning or losing McDonald’s, but winning the largest restaurant chain in the world would certainly help. There are fits and starts in growth. The challenge to sustaining growth is “stacking S curves” and PAR has several opportunities, including online ordering, convenience store POS, and payments. The combination of substantial organic growth and a potential acquisition, and possibly a take-out from a strategic acquirer leaves us in the same place – high expected value, timing uncertain.
Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts’ estimates.
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