Fundstrat's Mark Newton is watching Apple's moves closely
| | | | | | | | | | Fundstrat's Mark Newton is watching Apple's moves closely | |
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| | Apple shares could be reaching a turning point, with big implications for tech, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton. PHOTO: JOSH EDELSON/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES | | Following two straight record-busting sessions for the S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq COMP, the new quarter and second half looks ready to kick off with some losses. | Granted it's an event-filled, holiday-shortened week with Trump's tax and spending bill also currently battling its way through Senate, so some investor fatigue is understandable. | Still, even if markets are facing a possible lull around Friday's Independence Day holiday, in July's favor is a historically bullish seasonal trend seen in past post-election years, says Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat. | The stock market could just keep pushing higher until consolidation — sideways action — kicks in for August, Newton tells clients in a new note. That's as he spies signs the rally is just starting to broaden, with minor technical breakouts by the Dow industrials DJIA and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP. | In our call of the day, Newton has a bigger point to make, flagging Apple AAPL as a crucial stock to watch in the coming weeks and player in tech outperformance. That follows Monday's action in which Apple busted out of a period of consolidation that had lasted about a month, he said. | | | |
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| | | | Albeit in a rising market, Apple shares rose over 2% on Monday. Newton credited that to a report the company is considering using outside artificial intelligence and shifting away from its in-house tech to power a new Siri version, marking a "significant reversal" in strategy. He noted that the stock closed at multiday highs and its best closing level since mid-May of just over $205 per share after roughly a "month of lifeless trading." | While that's just one session, it matters as the tech sector sets up for a "challenge of all-time highs versus the S&P 500 in equal-weighted terms." | "Overall, it's essential for Apple to climb above $214 technically to have conviction about a larger rally getting under way," said Newton, who adds that the S&P 500 has made a 27% push higher since early April, with Apple hardly helping from mid-May onward. | In tech's favor — Newton measures the performance based on the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF RSPT — tech has seen some bullish technical developments. Those include recouping former lows that stretched back to 2024 that helped jump-start a push higher for the sector. | | | Fundstrat chart of Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF versus the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF. | | Newton said he suspects a test of all-time highs for technology might become temporary resistance, similar to how the lows tested in 2024 served as support several times before being pushed through earlier this year. | The path for tech stocks is this, he said: An outperformance into August, before stalling out and possibly reversing lower into September, then following that period of consolidation, another push higher into the final quarter of 2025. | When looking at a chart of the Invesco Tech ETF versus the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP, Newton concludes that technology has "come back with a vengeance," even though Apple has been sideways trading since May. | "Any ability of Apple to make upward progress heading into July likely could help technology's recent outperformance continue," said Newton. | The markets | | | | | | | Key asset performance | Last | 5d | 1m | YTD |
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S&P 500 | 6204.95 | 2.98% | 4.53% | 5.50% | Nasdaq Composite | 20,369.73 | 3.76% | 5.86% | 5.48% | 10-year Treasury | 4.215 | -8.10 | -25.50 | -36.10 | Gold | 3340.5 | -1.29% | -1.93% | 26.57% | Oil | 64.82 | -3.57% | 2.82% | -9.81% | Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points |
| The buzz | Tesla shares TSLA are down 3% as a fresh war of words erupts between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump threatened to cut subsidies on Musk's companies and cancel Tesla and SpaceX contracts. | | Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the European Central Bank's Forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. | Construction spending, job openings and the Institute for Supply Management's June manufacturing survey are all due at 10 a.m. Auto sales also is on tap. | Best of the web | | | | The chart | | | | | Despite new S&P 500 highs, Deutsche Bank strategists see "few signs of strong bullish sentiment and risk appetite." Their chart shows how equity positioning has bounced strongly off the bottom in the spring, but remains well below February levels. The strategists noted that U.S. equity fund flows since February are in step with "typical seasonal patterns" and credit "continued robust buybacks" with pushing equities back to records. | Top tickers | These were the most active tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. | | Random reads | | | | | |
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