Next Africa: A Kenyan tinderbox

Next week is the one-year anniversary of deadly Kenyan protests View in browser Welc...
Next week is the one-year anniversary of deadly Kenyan protests
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The sight of hundreds of hooded motorcyclists clubbing and whipping mostly Gen Z demonstrators in Nairobi this week took protests in the Kenyan capital to a dangerous new level. 

Dozens of people were injured as the marauding bikers allegedly chanted pro-government slogans, while the police lobbed teargas to disperse the rally.

A protest in Nairobi on Tuesday. Photographer: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

Memories of violence last year, ignited by planned tax hikes, that killed more than 60 people are still vivid in the East African nation. While anger over a cost-of-living crisis and claims of rampant corruption remain rife, the latest round of action was sparked by concerns over police brutality.

Opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka accused officers at this week's protest — a reaction to the death in custody of an online activist — of "a clear dereliction of duty" and Amnesty International decried the alleged use of militia. The police had noted the presence of "group of goons" at the demonstration and vowed to take action against them, spokesman Michael Muchiri said on X.

The march was the second since Albert Ojwang died about two weeks ago. Deputy police chief Eliud Lagat, whose complaint led to the blogger's arrest, agreed to "step aside" to allow for a probe.

While accusations of police overreach aren't new, the tinderbox comes against a backdrop of a deteriorating fiscal picture that risks inflaming tensions. 

WATCH: Jennifer Zabasajja reports on recent protests in Kenya on Bloomberg TV.

William Ruto dropped some of the tax plans that drew public ire last year and formed a so-called government of national unity with opposition leader Raila Odinga — yet the president has struggled to rebuild trust.

The state's choices now are stark: deepen austerity and risk a backlash or ease the purse strings and hasten a fiscal crisis that may require even deeper cuts in the future. 

The government's resolve to rebuild trust among youths faces an imminent test.

Next week is the anniversary of the start of the deadly 2024 riots and scores are expected to take to the streets again. — David Herbling

Key stories and opinion: 
Whip-Wielding Bikers Attack Kenya Protesters; Dozens Hurt 
Kenya Lawmakers Rebuff Treasury Plans to Scrap Some Tax Breaks 
IMF Team Lands in Kenya to Assess Impact of Corruption 
Kenya Police Boss Steps Down for Murder Probe Amid Protests 
Light of Democracy Is Dimming Across East Africa: Justice Malala

On this week's podcast, East Africa Bureau Chief Helen Nyambura joins Jennifer Zabasajja to discuss what's behind the new protests.

News Roundup 

Foreign Ministers from Rwanda and Congo are set to sign a peace agreement next week to try end conflict between the two nations that have persisted for decades. The announcement came after meetings in Washington mediated by the US and observed by officials from Qatar. Democratic Republic of Congo, the EU and US accuse Rwanda of backing the M23 rebels that have seized major cities in eastern Congo. Kigali continues to deny supporting the group. Separately, Rwandan authorities arrested opposition leader Victoire Ingabire over an alleged plot to incite public disorder.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame, left, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani and Felix Tshisekedi, Congo's leader, during peace talks in Doha in March. Source: Qatari foreign ministry

South Africa will hold trade talks with the Trump administration on the sidelines of a US-Africa Business Summit next week, with less than a month to go before Washington's reciprocal tariffs are set to come into effect. Discussions on technical details have taken place and the teams are set to resume negotiations at the gathering in Luanda, Angola's capital. Pretoria is lagging countries including India and the UK in striking a trade deal with the US, making it unlikely they will reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline, when tariffs will triple from the current 10%. 

Recent health-funding cuts are wreaking havoc on many African countries' ability to gain control over diseases such as cholera, according to the continent's main health-advisory body. Financial aid provided by governments of wealthier countries to developing nations to improve health had already dropped by about 70% between 2021 and 2025, it said. Africa, which is also contending with mpox, measles, dengue and Lassa fever, accounts for 94% of all cholera deaths. The bulk of cases are in Angola, Congo, Sudan and South Sudan.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu ordered security agencies to hunt down the perpetrators of a massacre in a key food-producing region that's highlighted growing insecurity in the West African nation. Assailants killed more than 100 people in the southeastern state of Benue, with homes set on fire and people shot, according to the police. Benue is a vital producer of soybeans, cassava, mangoes and oranges, as well as yams and rice.

Car theft is a growing problem in the UK, with almost 130,000 vehicles stolen in the year ending March 2024 and most of the crimes nowadays are orchestrated by gangs cashing in on overseas demand for SUVs. About 40% of the cars intercepted at British ports from 2021 to 2024 were destined for Congo, whose centralized location and access to seaports makes it a good hub for distributing the vehicles across Africa.

A stolen Toyota RAV 4 suspended from the roof of a shipping container. Photographer: Jose Sarmento Matos/Bloomberg

Niger's military government took control of Orano's uranium mine, escalating a standoff with the French nuclear-power company. The junta accused the firm of violating its shareholder agreement by extracting more uranium than its 63.4% stake in a local affiliate allows. Orano was also criticized for halting operations, repatriating French staff and signaling that it may sell off its assets. The mine seizure highlights the shift by military-led states in the Sahel region against Western interests after a series of military coups over the past five years. 

Next Africa Quiz — In which African country did political parties led by two men who were barred from competing in a presidential election agree to form an alliance? Send your answers to gbell16@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • South Africa's inflation rate remained below the bottom end of the central bank's target range for a third month in May, holding steady at 2.8%. 
  • Zimbabwe's tobacco sales surged to a record as improved rainfall helped boost output in Africa's top producer of the crop.
  • Yellow Card and Visa signed a deal to promote the use of stablecoins for cross-border payments in emerging markets where the cryptocurrency exchange operates.
  • Qatar is in advanced talks to invest $3.5 billion in a tourism project on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, the latest potential Gulf backing for the North African nation.

Coming Up

  • June 22 Angola hosts the four-day US-Africa summit
  • June 24 South Africa central bank's leading economic indicator & non-farm payrolls data for the first quarter
  • June 26 South Africa central bank's quarterly bulletin, second-quarter consumer confidence & producer inflation data for May, Zambia inflation for June and trade data for May, Namibia GDP data for the first quarter
  • June 27 GDP data for Botswana and Mauritius

Quote of the Week

"It's not amateurs that are playing at this. This is proper business." 
Adam Gibson
UK police officer
Gibson was commenting on car thefts in the UK. Many of the vehicles are shipped to Africa.

Last Word

South Africa's Kyalami racetrack is planning an overhaul as the country prepares to bid to host its first Formula 1 race in three decades. The circuit near Johannesburg needs to be upgraded to get the requyired accreditation from the Federation Internationale de l'Automobile, the track's owner Toby Venter said. The facility needs improved safety features such as barrier protections, and a review of spectator stands to ensure it can host expected 100,000-strong crowds. South Africa is competing with nations including Rwanda and Morocco to host a race in Africa, the only continent (apart from Antarctica) that doesn't boast an F1 event.  

An aerial view of the Kyalami Grand Prix Circuit. Photographer: Roberta Ciuccio/AFP/Getty Images

We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Tuesday. Send any feedback to gbell16@bloomberg.net.

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